From Systemic Theory to Causal Evidence: Process Tracing as a Methodological Bridge for Integrated Reality Theory (IRT)
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La Himmah il Princess Choris
*
Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya,,
Indonesia
- M. Shoim Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya, Indonesia
Abstract
Integrated Reality Theory (IRT) provides a comprehensive systemic framework for analyzing development and organizational dynamics through five fundamental variables: Energy (E), Information (I), Entropy (S), Consciousness (C), and Evolution (ν). However, as a macro-level theory, IRT faces challenges in empirical operationalization, particularly in demonstrating and validating its proposed causal mechanisms. This study aims to develop a methodological framework that integrates process tracing as a bridge between IRT's systemic propositions and evidence-based causal inference. The research employs a qualitative conceptual approach based on an extensive literature review combined with methodological analysis using the Bayesian Process Tracing framework. The analytical procedure involves identifying the causal signature associated with each IRT mechanism and evaluating empirical evidence through four complementary inferential tests: straw-in-the-wind, hoop test, smoking gun, and doubly decisive test. The findings indicate that integrating IRT with process tracing produces a systematic causal diagnostic protocol consisting of five key stages: mechanism identification, empirical indicator specification, evidence classification according to inferential strength, Bayesian probability updating, and evidence-based policy formulation. Conceptually, the framework enables all five IRT variables to be operationalized into observable empirical indicators, thereby enhancing the theory's testability, falsifiability, and explanatory power. A typological illustration using the Indonesia Emas 2045 development agenda demonstrates that this integrated framework provides a more comprehensive explanation of causal relationships among development factors than conventional linear approaches. The study contributes to advancing IRT from a predominantly conceptual framework into an empirically testable scientific theory, offering a robust methodological foundation for future research in development studies, public policy, organizational analysis, and other complex social systems.
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