Determinants of Economic Growth: The Role Of Poverty, Unemployment, and HDI (2019–2024)
-
Rebecca Cindy Sartika
*
Universitas Tidar, Magelang,
Indonesia
- Muh. Syaiful Bakhri Universitas Tidar, Magelang, Indonesia
- Firdan Thoriq Faza Universitas Tidar, Magelang, Indonesia
Abstract
Indonesia is committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which necessitates continuous evaluation of development outcomes across regions. Economic growth serves as a key indicator of sustainable development, making it essential to understand the factors that influence it. This study aims to examine the impact of the poverty rate, unemployment rate, and Human Development Index (HDI) on economic growth in Central Java Province. Employing a quantitative approach, the research utilizes panel data from 35 regencies and municipalities in Central Java for the 2019 to 2024 period and applies panel data regression using the Fixed Effect Model (FEM), selected through specification tests to ensure robustness. The findings reveal that poverty (β = -0.0149967; p < 0.001) and unemployment rates (β = -0.0051182; p < 0.001) have a negative effect on economic growth, while the HDI (β = 3.201663; p < 0.001) has a positive and significant effect. The model explains approximately 60% of the variation in economic growth (R² = 0.6019). These results underscore the importance of reducing poverty and unemployment while enhancing human development as key drivers of regional growth. The study contributes empirically by integrating poverty, unemployment, and human development variables simultaneously within the SDG framework, thereby providing comprehensive insights to support policy formulation aimed at achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth in Indonesia.
References
Alfaris, R. D., Rustam, R., & Syafri. (2023). Pencapaian Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan (Sdgs) Ke-8: Studi Kasus Di Jawa Tengah. Journal of Comprehensive Science, 2(2), 493–500.
Andini Mulyasari. (2016). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia dan Angkatan Kerja terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 5(4), 368–376.
Awaludin, M., Maryam, S., & Firmansyah, M. (2023). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Pada Sektor Industri Kecil Dan Menengah Di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat. Jurnal Konstanta Ekonomi Pembangunan, 2(1), 156–174.
Basuki, A. T., & Prawoto, N. (2016). Analisis Regresi Dalam Penelitian Ekonomi & Bisnis: Dilengkapi Aplikasi SPSS & EVIEWS. PT RajaGrafindo Persada.
Bayu, L. N., & Fathoni, M. A. (2024). The Impact of Poverty, Human Development, and Zakat Contributions on Economic Growth in Indonesia and Malaysia. KnE Social Sciences, 2024, 223–240. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v9i20.16515
Frey, D. F. (2017). Economic growth, full employment and decent work: The means and ends in SDG 8. International Journal of Human Rights, 21(8), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2017.1348709
Hidayat, S., & Prabowo, P. S. (2024). The Effect of Demographic Dividend, HDI, and Population Growth on Economic Growth in East Java. Independent: Journal of Economics, 4(2), 102–113. https://doi.org/10.26740/independent.v4i2.60918
Irawan, A. D., & Sulistyo, A. Q. P. (2022). Pengaruh Pandemi Dalam Menciptakan Ketimpangan Sosial Ekonomi Antara Pejabat Negara Dan Masyarakat. Jurnal Citizenship Virtues, 2(1), 251–262.
Juhari, Hamdan, Nurwasya, Safitri, M., & Makrus, M. (2024). Penurunan Angka Pengangguran dan Peningkatan KesempatanKerja di Kota Pangkalpinang. EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi, 3(3), 1087–1099.
Kusno, H. R., Ali, H. F., & Andini, S. L. (2023). The Effect of the Human Development Index (IPM) and Absorbed Labor on Economic Growth in East Java. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Manajemen, Ekonomi, Keuangan Dan Bisnis, 2(1), 65–80.
Lambon, J. I., Ocansey, E. O. N. D., & Ababio, O. K. (2025). Influence of Poverty on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Role of Financial Stability. Archives of Business Research, 13(06), 120–136. https://doi.org/10.14738/abr.1306.18964
Mahmud, T. A., Untari, A. D., & Asmawi, M. (2025). Human Development Index and Sustainable Development Goals in Banten Province. Jurnal Pemberdayaan Masyarakat, 4(1), 99–110. https://doi.org/10.46843/jpm.v4i1.361
Moh Muqorrobin, & Soejoto, A. (2017). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, 5(3), 1–6.
Mohamed, A. A. (2024). Economic growth and unemployment nexus: empirical test of Okun’s law in Somalia. Journal of Economic Structures, 13(16), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-024-00337-y
Mukhtar, S., Saptono, A., & Arifin, A. S. (2019). Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Terhadap Kemiskinan Di Indonesia. Ecoplan : Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 2(2), 77–89. https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v2i2.20
Nengsih, T. A., Yulianti, R., Kirana, S. S., Almansyah, Majid, M. N., Usdeldi, Rahma, S., & Mutia, A. (2024). Analysis Of Economic And Labor Growth On The Reduction Of The Number Of Poor Population In Jambi. International Conference of Islamic Economics and Business 10th 2024, 1309–1316.
Novriansyah, M. A. (2018). Pengaruh Pengangguran Dan Kemiskinan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Gorontalo. Gorontalo Development Review, 1(1), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.32507/ajei.v11i2.636
Oltulular, S. (2025). Human Capital Dynamics Are the Key to Economic Growth: Source of Value of the Future. Economies, 13(8), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13080235
Pahrudin, Z. S., Fitri, A. N., Gusti, S. A. R., & Fadilla, A. (2024). Pemerataan Ekonomi melalui Pembagian Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) di Indonesia. Jurnal Pemberdayaan Ekonomi Dan Masyarakat, 1(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.47134/jpem.v1i1.235
Paramita, A. A. I. D., & Purbadharmaja, I. B. P. (2015). Pengaruh Investasi Dan Pengangguran Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Serta Kemiskinan Di Provinsi Bali. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana, 4(10), 1194–1218. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eep/article/view/15889
Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Tengah, B. (2025). RPJMD Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2025-2029.
Ponto, V. M. (2023). Peningkatan Produktivitas Dalam Rangka Mewujudkan Pekerjaan Layak dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (Tujuan ke-8 Sustainable Development Goals). Cendekia Niaga, 7(1), 85–96. https://doi.org/10.52391/jcn.v7i1.792
Pratama, A. G. K., & Darsana, I. B. (2019). Pengaruh Kemiskinan Dan Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Kesejahteraan Masyarakat. E-Journal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana, 8(6), 1300–1330.
Putri, E. F. S., Arafat, L. O. A., Utami, A. F., & Nisa, F. L. (2024). Pengaruh Tingkat Kemiskinan Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan, 10(20), 292–304.
Putri, I. A., & Soesatyo, Y. (2016). Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kota Surabaya. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi (Jupe), 4(3), 1–7.
Puttitanun, T., & Lerskullawat, A. (2025). Human development and economic growth: who benefits the most? Applied Economics, 00(00), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2025.2558238
Utami, F. P. (2020). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM), Kemiskinan, Pengangguran Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Aceh. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika, 4(2), 101–113. https://journal.lppmunindra.ac.id/index.php/sosio_ekons/article/view/5846/3104
Wicaksono, M. N. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Angkatan Kerja, dan Belanja Modal Daerah terhadap Peningkatan PDRB Provinsi di Indonesia Tahun 2008-2012. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Universitas Brawijaya, 3(1), 1–20. https://jimfeb.ub.ac.id/index.php/jimfeb/article/view/1418
Zahari, R. D., & Prabowo, P. S. (2022). Pengaruh Kemiskinan dan Pengangguran terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Wilayah Mataraman Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 5(2), 106–117. https://doi.org/10.33005/jdep.v5i2.402
Copyright (c) 2026 Rebecca Cindy Sartika, Muh. Syaiful Bakhri, Firdan Thoriq Faza
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (Refer to The Effect of Open Access).
