The Dow Jones Industrial Average as a Moderator in the Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and the JCI
-
I Kadek Bellyoni Dwijaya
*
Abdul Azis Lamadjido University, Palu,
Indonesia
- Abdul Azis R Tadulako University, Palu, Indonesia
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine and analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including Money Supply, BI Rate, Inflation on the Composite Stock Price Index moderated by the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. Using monthly data for the period 2013 – 2022 as many as 120 observations through a quantitative approach with the Fit model test analysis technique using the Smart-PLS application. The findings show that the Money Supply variable has a negative and insignificant effect, the BI Rate variable has an insignificant effect, Inflation and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have a positive and significant effect on the Composite Stock Price Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is able to moderate all macroeconomic variables on the Composite Stock Price Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The strength of the United States stock market has a significant impact on the stock prices of developing countries, one of which is Indonesia, meaning that Indonesia's economic conditions are still dependent on developed countries, namely the United States in the long-term period. The reliance on global markets suggests that Indonesian policymakers and investors must carefully track international market trends, especially in the United States, when developing strategies and making investment decisions. The reliance on global markets suggests that Indonesian policymakers and investors must carefully track international market trends, especially in the United States, when developing strategies and making investment decisions.
References
Akeerebari, T. J. (2022). EFFECT OF INSUFFICIENT CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION ON THE RATE OF INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA: THE BUHARI’S ADMINISTRATION EXPERIENCE. American Journal of Economics, 5(1), 25–47. https://doi.org/10.47672/aje.887
Bantahari, T. H., Kulo, C., Sari, Z. P., & Maramis, J. B. (2022). FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2018 - 2021 FACTORS AFFECTING THE JOINT STOCK PRICE INDEX ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE Jurnal EMBA Vol . 10 No . 4 Desember 2022 , Hal . 1577-1588. 10(4), 1577–1588. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.35794/emba.v10i4.44064
Beh, W. L., & Yew, W. K. (2020). Macroeconomic factors and stock markets interdependencies: Evidence from United States and China. Journal of Critical Reviews, 7(5), 68–74. https://doi.org/10.31838/jcr.07.05.11
Bi, Y., Liu, H., Wang, R., & Li, S. (2021). Predicting Stock Market Movements Through Daily News Headlines Sentiment Analysis: US Stock Market. 2021 2nd International Conference on Big Data & Artificial Intelligence & Software Engineering (ICBASE), 642–648. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICBASE53849.2021.00127
Fuad, F., & Yuliadi, I. (2021). Determinants of the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 5(1), 27–41. https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v5i1.11002
Hellberg, O. A. (2021). The relationship between US macroeconomic variables and the Swedish stock market: Bachelor Thesis, International Finance.
Herlianto, D., & Hafizh, L. (2020). Pengaruh Indeks Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Dan Straits Times Index Singapore Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). INOBIS: Jurnal Inovasi Bisnis Dan Manajemen Indonesia, 3(2), 211–229. https://doi.org/10.31842/jurnalinobis.v3i2.133
John, S., Camilleri, Scicluna, Nicolanne, Ye, & Bai. (2019). Do stock markets lead or lag macroeconomic variables? Evidence from select European countries. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48(95299), 170–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.01.019
Kurniawati, R., & Khairunnisa. (2020). Analisis faktor makroekonomi yang berpengaruh terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) tahun 2010-2018. Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, Dan Akuntansi), 4(3), 1662–1684. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v4i3.476
Mohamadieh, K. (2021). Investment Governance to Reverse Unjustified Privileging of Investors. Development (Basingstoke), 64(1–2), 82–92. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41301-021-00286-0
Pícha, V. (2017). Effect of money supply on the stock market. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 65(2), 465–472. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201765020465
Ratnasari, Q., Muljaningsih, S., & Asmara, K. (2021). Pengaruh Faktor Makro Ekonomi terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Periode 2010-2019). Jurnal Syntax Admiration, 2(6), 1134–1148. https://doi.org/10.46799/jsa.v2i6.254
Robiyanto, R., Santoso, M. A., Atahau, A. D. R., & Harijono, H. (2019). The Indonesia stock exchange and its dynamics: An analysis of the effect of macroeconomic variables. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 15(4), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2019.15-4.5
Salisu, A. A., & Vo, X. V. (2021). The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments. International Review of Economics & Finance, 74, 138–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.02.008
Santosa, P. W., & Roselli, S. (2023). The Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators, Crude Oil Prices, and the Dow Jones Index on the Jakarta Composite Index. Jurnal Orientasi Bisnis Dan Entrepreneurship (JOBS), 4(1), 57–68. https://doi.org/10.33476/jobs.v4i1.3624
Silalahi, E., & Sihombing, R. (2021). PENGARUH FAKTOR MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERGERAKAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2017-2020. 7(2), 139–152.
Sinay, L. J., Jaariyah, M., Lewaherilla, N., & Lesnussa, Y. A. (2022). Forecasting The Composite Stock Price Index Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Hybrid Model Artificial Neural Network. Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath), 1(2), 89–100. https://doi.org/10.30598/pijmathvol1iss2pp89-100
Sri Rahayu, P. S. P., & Diatmika, I. P. G. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, Dan Dow Jones Industrial Average Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Periode Januari 2019-Agustus 2022). JIMAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi) Undiksha, 14(03), 1104–1111. https://doi.org/10.23887/jimat.v14i03.61155
Sugiyanto, E., & Sarialam, M. (2022). Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi, Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Kospi dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2016-2020. The 5 Th Business and Economics Conference in Utilization of Modern Technology, 1007–1022.
Tanusdjaja, H., & Nariman, A. (2019). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. XXIV(01), 144–158. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24912/je.v24i1.546
Wibowo, C. Y., & Aminda, R. S. (2021). PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN. Proceeding Seminar Nasional & Call For Papers, 272–282.
Wiralaga, H. K., Sebayang, K. D., & Nurlatifah, D. (2022). THE EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE OF CREDIT AND THIRD PARTY FUNDS ON THE NUMBER OF CREDIT DISTRIBUTION AT NATIONAL PRIVATE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN INDONESIA, 2015- 2019. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, Perkantoran, Dan Akuntansi, 3(3), 231–244. https://doi.org/10.21009/jpepa.0303.22.
Copyright (c) 2025 I Kadek Bellyoni Dwijaya, Abdul Azis R
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (Refer to The Effect of Open Access).
